4 June 2011 - 5:14pm| by | 2 comments

Could the Groupon difference (people) really make it worth $20 billion?

Could the Groupon difference (people) really make it worth $20 billion? Could the Groupon difference (people) really make it worth $20 billion

All the talk is of an Internet bubble - and there is even talk of a bubble in discussion groups talking about the bubble. But could Groupon's big staff really be the thing that makes it worth the money?

According to filings with the US Security and Exchange Commission, the sum it hopes  to raise  with its IPO is a much more modest $750 million.

But just as LinkedIn's estimated value before its IPO last month was just $3.3 billion - and the value of the shares actually on offer was just $700 million on Day One - the company finished being worth $10 billion in 48 hours as punters rushed in.

So that's why the hopes are so high for Groupon, although it actually lost $389.6 million in 2010.  Can Groupon really be worth up to  $20 billion? On the plus side, between 2009 and 2010, its revenues increased by 2,241 percent, to $713 million and that figure could quadruple this year.  Revenue of $646 million in coupon sales was reported in  the first quarter, although overall Groupon lost $117million. Despite last year's loss, "revenue is growing at a steady clip, however, well up from the year-prior period," said  AdAge on an optimistic note.  One of the question marks over Groupon is that it is a relatively easy idea to copy - and plenty  of people have been doing just that.  Apart from standalone businesses ( such as Living Social)  newspapers and biggies like Google, Amazon and Facebook have piled in with  their own daily deals, offering  cut-rate specials  on behalf of local merchants. But national deals are also working for Groupon: the company  turned $11 million in a single day selling 400,000 coupons for the Gap. Three years ago the category barely existed, says AdAge. Now it is estimated the deals market will reach $3.9 billion in the US by 2015. And it's not just the US. From its Chicago base, Groupon has expanded worldwide, sending email deals to 83 million subscribers in 43 countries including the UK. So what makes Groupon different from the rest in the high tech business? Oddly it's that old-fashioned thing, a large and enthusiastic work force.  Facebook had fewer than 100 employees at its two-year mark and today still has only 2,000. At 30 months old, Groupon has more than 7,000 employees,  up from more than 5,000 in just March.  So could the visiting sales person, calling on local businesses, make Groupon a much better bet than the rest - and worth that $20 billion? Ask us in a year's time. 

Comments

4 Jun 2011 - 19:54
allanedwards's picture
1
comments

Can I just explain how the valuation works.

Groupon is only offering $750 million but as soon as you buy the stock all of there other stock converts into stock.

So the people paying 750 million are buying 1/7 of the company so the company is worth $5.25 billion.

Could it be worth $20 billion. I don't think so. They are losing such ridiculous sums of money currently and its a very simple business to copy.

I say its worth 0. Buffett would say its worth 0. But anything is worth what people will pay for it. So when you have a market full of idiots u can get short term valuations that mean nothing but in a year or 2 we won't see $20 billion

Anonymous (not verified)
6 Jun 2011 - 08:36
Anonymous's picture

The bigger the bubble grows, the bigger the bang when it bursts.

And this bubble will definitely burst soon.

As usual, one thing history teaches us, is that we never learn anything from history.

The dotcom crash of 2001 might look small compared to what might happen this time.

Write Your Comment

New to The Drum

You will be sent a verification email. Click on the link in the email to post your comment.

Tick to receive daily newsletter full of the latest news in creative marketing and media.
By checking this box you are agreeing to The Drum's website terms and conditions.

Don't miss out... Get your Advertising news by email

Directory Latest